Using ground-based telescopes and space-based assets, NASA and SpaceX are tracking a used Falcon 9 upper stage from a commercial mission expected to impact the Moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5, near the Einstein and Bell craters. The impact poses no danger to Earth and NASA scientists are planning to collect lunar data from the event and refine techniques for tracking objects in space. 

On Jan. 15, 2025, SpaceX launched the Falcon 9 rocket and successfully deployed Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost 1 lunar lander to the Moon under NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative. Solar activity and gravitational forces caused the stage’s unplanned return to the Moon. NASA and SpaceX remain in communication about the upper stage and its flight path.

Independent astronomers first identified the trajectory using publicly available data. NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, which tracks natural objects that could pose hazards to Earth, later confirmed the stage has a 100% chance of impacting the Moon. NASA will continue tracking it as part of training operations.

Because the Moon has no atmosphere to slow incoming objects, it is struck by meteoroids daily. Human‑made object impacts are far less common but do occur. The rocket stage is expected to create a crater about 60 feet wide and 12 feet deep and throw dust and rock outward as ejecta. For comparison, a meteoroid with the same energy as the upper stage hits the Moon about every six days, so the lunar surface is constantly absorbing impacts with the same force. Despite the disturbance, observing impacts gives scientists valuable insight by revealing how ejecta plumes behave, helping to understand the Moon’s geology and refine models that guide future exploration and science missions.

The impact will not be visible to the naked eye on Earth, but NASA will attempt to observe it in real time. The Meteoroid Environments Office at the agency’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, will use ground‑based telescopes to image the impact; however, weather and lighting conditions may make viewing difficult.

Additionally, NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and the ShadowCam instrument aboard South Korea’s Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter will look for chances to image the site before and after the impact. Image availability will depend on lighting, orbital timing, and spacecraft position, and it may take several days to receive imagery. Any data collected will help scientists better understand artificial impacts and their exploration implications.

Although unplanned in this instance, disposing of upper stages on the lunar surface is a technically accepted and safe method and, in some cases, can be the only practical option for missions in low lunar orbit. Many operators choose controlled impacts because they provide predictable and trackable end of life outcomes.

NASA is committed to debris mitigation and demonstrating responsible disposal practices that safeguard Earth, its orbital environment, and other planetary bodies while enabling discoveries that deepen our understanding of the solar system and benefit humanity.

Using continuous imagery from NASA’s PUNCH (Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere) mission, scientists predicted the near-Earth arrival of a solar eruption to within 30 minutes in an initial proof of concept test. The results, presented Tuesday at the Committee on Space Research Scientific Meeting and under review at the journal Space Weather, could revolutionize the way Earth-impacting storms are forecasted.

“We thought PUNCH would be good at this, but it’s a stunning result,” said Craig DeForest, principal investigator for PUNCH at Southwest Research Institute’s Solar System Science and Exploration Division in Boulder, Colorado. “To put it in perspective, this could be the space weather equivalent of going from a steam engine to a modern internal combustion engine.”

Solar storms are caused by huge explosions of material off the Sun called coronal mass ejections. Forecasting when the ejections will reach Earth is key for mitigating their impacts on power grids, satellites, and astronauts. However, until recently, coronal mass ejections could not continuously be tracked for much of their journey across the solar system.

That changed in 2025 with the launch of the PUNCH mission, which uses four spacecraft in low Earth orbit to make continuous 3D observations of the inner solar system. Before PUNCH, coronal mass ejections could only be seen as they traversed one-fifth the way from the Sun to Earth, leaving scientists to guess what happened over the rest of the distance. With PUNCH’s wider field-of-view, scientists can now routinely track the solar explosions nearly all the way to Earth, capturing a new image every four minutes.

Scientists used data from a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on May 31, 2025, to retroactively test if they could improve forecast modeling. Scientists input the images into a computer model, which analyzed the leading edge of the coronal mass ejection over time. As it moved and evolved across the inner solar system, the model used the coronal mass ejection’s speed and geometry to calculate when it would reach Earth.

Twelve hours after the coronal mass ejection left the Sun, the model settled on a final prediction showing the storm would arrive eight hours later. That predicted arrival time was ultimately accurate to within a half hour, making it 10 times better than currently used methods, which only provide a 5-hour window. In addition, the model itself revealed when the estimate had stabilized, so that a space weather forecaster would be able to predict the arrival time with confidence.

“We accomplished an order of magnitude better result than the state-of-the-art method with a really basic process, just informed by the fact that the coronal mass ejection could be tracked continuously across the solar system,” DeForest said.

These first results demonstrate the power of PUNCH’s wide-field imagery to track the solar events as they travel out from the Sun. Ultimately, the scientists think that with more refined PUNCH data and better models, they could be able to forecast coronal mass ejection arrival times even further in advance.

Beyond space weather forecasting, the images also help scientists glean new insights on coronal mass ejections. The high-resolution images allowed the scientists to see new structures in coronal mass ejections, revealing that the clouds of material are clumpier than previously thought and continue to evolve as they cross the solar system.

The PUNCH data is also helping scientists better understand how plasma, the solar material launched by coronal mass ejections, moves across space. This information can help astrophysicists better understand plasma’s behavior across the galaxy, such as in star-forming regions where it is nearly impossible to study on small scales.

Southwest Research Institute, based in San Antonio, leads the PUNCH mission and operates the mission’s four spacecraft from its facilities in Boulder. The mission is managed by Space Science Mission Operations at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, for the Science Mission Directorate at the agency’s headquarters in Washington.

By Mara Johnson-Groh
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.